cma

Analyst upgrades:

• ING upgraded Roche (OTC: RHHBY) to Buy from Hold as it believes Roche will not pay more than $100/share for Genentech (NYSE: DNA) and that the Avastin adjuvant data due April 2009 provides significant upside potential.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Outperform from Perform on valuation as it believes sentiment is at an all-time low and the stock has limited downside. The firm set a $5 target on shares.
  
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Comerica (NYSE: CMA) to Equal Weight from Underweight citing valuation that adequately reflects credit deterioration in its commercial-heavy loan portfolio and aggressive government action.
• Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) and Nucor (NYSE: NUE) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the safety theme will come back if only because these companies' earnings will be good in six months.

Editor's note: Jim Cramer will present his 2009 stock outlook for the first time at TheStreet.com Investment Conference on Saturday, Oct. 25. Click for details.

Now they come after the Procter & Gambles (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) and the General Mills (NYSE: GIS) (Cramer's Take) and the like, betting that the action will be better in the cyclicals with all of this money being printed worldwide.

Commodities are also coming back because of reflation. And we have to feel that many of the infra and ag names are finally sold out by the hedge fund redemptions.

Here I am speaking of a Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take), with its good yield and a belief that the hedge funds are at last done.

I don't buy it. I like a balanced portfolio, but I want to buy the GIS/PG all the way down because we are going into a recession, not going out of one. These companies pay dividends, raise dividends and have great commodity tailwinds.

Colgate's (NYSE: CL) (Cramer's Take) down a lot too, and I am liking that one.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the value creation at both companies is astonishing and not going away, despite the market trend.

Every now and then days like yesterday happen. Days where it is so crazy, where the selling never ends and the buying never ends. Where the sellers just keep reloading and the buyer just keep buying.

Some of it seems like short-covering panic and some of it seems like sellers who can't take the pain anymore. As I watched Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG) (Cramer's Take) -- a very good company, a company that priced a gigantic piece of merchandise 30% higher a fortnight ago -- go down more than 10% today, I am astonished at the market's inefficiency.

When I see Nucor (NYSE: NUE) (Cramer's Take) decline 10% on a good quarter and conservative guidance, I marvel at how ridiculous things are. Sure, you can say if you look at a three-year chart, "This is the end of the bubble." But how about value? How about the fact that COG is making much more money than it ever has and is unlikely, given the big shift toward natural gas, ever to make as little money as it did a few years ago?

Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) shares are trading higher today with other financial stocks after a slew of positive financial earnings. JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) reported a second-quarter profit of $2 billion, or 54 cents per share, beating analysts' predictions of 44 cents per share, while PNC Financial (NYSE: PNC) and Comerica (NYSE: CMA) also reported earnings and are trading higher. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on RF.

After hitting a one-year high of $33.65 last July, the stock hit a one-year low of $6.41 on Tuesday. RF opened this morning at $8.88. So far today the stock has hit a low of $8.09 and a high of $9.91. As of 12:45, RF is trading at $9.07, up 1.06 (12.8%). The chart for RF looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $5 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just one month as long as RF is above $5 at August expiration. RF would have to fall by more than 44% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

RF hasn't been below $6.40 at all in the past year and has shown support around $7 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 7/22) disappoint, but most of the banks that have reported so far have responded well to their earnings reports.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in RF nor CMA. He does own and control bullish hedged trades on PNC and JPM.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out.

You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.

First, obviously, are Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.

We all know that Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) are in trouble. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?

After the implosion of IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) and news of the deterioration of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) last week, there's bound to be a certain level of trepidation as the earnings crunch begins this coming week and many big financial companies report. Here's a look at what Wall Street was expecting (see The week in preview: Expectations as the earnings crunch begins for expectations of other reporting companies.)

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting the following of companies to report lower earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM): 44 cents EPS (-63.3%) on sales of $16.4 billion (-13.2%)
• Comerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA): 51 cents EPS (-59.2%) on sales of $680.2 million (-7.3%)
• Zions Bancorp. (NYSE: ZION): 75 cents EPS (-47.6%) on sales of $627.3. million (+2.7%)
• Huntington Bancshares Inc. (NYSE: HBAN): 23 cents EPS (-32.4%) on sales of $617.1 million (+50.7%)
• Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF): $1.31 EPS (-30.7%) on sales of $4.4 billion (+7.8%)
• Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC): 50 cents EPS (-25.4%) on sales of $10.7 billion (+7.7%)
• M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB): $1.50 EPS (-23.1%) on sales of $756.6 million (+1.6%)
• BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT): 69 cents EPS (-16.9%) on sales of $1.8 billion (+5.9%)
• U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB): 60 cents EPS (-7.7%) on sales of $3.8 billion (+8.3%)
• PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: PNC): $1.16 EPS (-7.2%) on sales of $1.9 billion (+8.5%)

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says beyond the long tradition, it's what we need now as a nation.

How did "bailout" become such a curse? The U.S. has a long history of bailouts, the big ones being most successful. The U.S. government saved Lockheed (NYSE: LMT) (Cramer's Take) in 1974 -- we need all the competition in military procurement we can get, considering how precious little of it there is -- so it's hard to judge that one a loser. The feds profited from the Chrysler bailout five years later .Not just profited, but had a huge success. The Mexican bailout in the 1990s saved that country's financials and gave the U.S. a tidy profit. The Resolution Trust bailout worked perfectly in restoring the banking system at a small cost, in retrospect, to the chaos we could have had.

Yet here's JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) taking on a lot of risk, in retrospect, given the junk nature of Bear's portfolio, and there's a tremendous amount of hand-wringing about it?

I say get used to it. General Motors (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take) and Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) can't cut their way out of their jam, not with the F Series down 40% and GM still paying more for its labor force than it thought would have to. Both have strong, salvageable franchises, but they need capital, a la Chrysler in 1979. I think the feds should give it to them with contingencies that allow the U.S. to profit from any rebound.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Jefferies Group, Quality Systems and Techwell were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Friedman Billings initiated Jefferies Group (NYSE: JEF) with a Market Perform citing the difficult underwriting environment and challenging credit market.
  
• JMP Securities initiated Quality Systems (NASDAQ: QSII) with an Outperform rating and $35 target. The firm expects the company's practice management and electronic medical record solutions to benefit from growth opportunities within the ambulatory market.
  
• Techwell (NASDAQ: TWLL) was assumed with an Overweight rating and $14 target at Thomas Weisel, as they expect TWLL to have continued stable revenue growth given its market leadership and increased global security demand.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Bernstein initiated NetSuite (NYSE: N) with a Market Perform rating and $23 target.
  
• Keefe Bruyette started Comerica (NYSE: CMA) with a Market Perform rating and $37 target.
  
• BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) were assumed at ING with Buy ratings.

It has been rumored for the past couple of months or so that J. P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) has been pondering the acquisition of downtrodden Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) and may have had some preliminary discussions. I have been thinking that Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) might have more than a passing interest too.

I have had business dealings with all three financial companies, including stock ownership, loans, and multiple bank accounts. We have owned JPM stock in the past, but do not currently. We sold most of our WaMu stock last year but still own it in one account. We have never owned Wells, but of the three we would like to get into this one the most, at the right price, of course. I have written extensively about all three companies, so it is with more than a passing interest that I was thinking about M&A issues.

Chase and Wells both could make use of WaMu and gain financially but in different ways. Chase has a much bigger need to establish a presence on the West Coast. It has been expanding over time but its branch system is still weak compared to Wells and the other major banks. With its extensive branch system on the West Coast, WaMu would solve that problem fast.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Certain banks, VASCO Data Security and Bankrate were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• UBS downgraded shares of Discover (NYSE: DFS) and Capital One (NYSE: COF) to Sell from Neutral and American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Sell from Buy, as they believe a U.S.-led recession will lead to increased credit losses.
• Jefferies downgraded shares of VASCO Data Security (NASDAQ: VDSI) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's exposure to the financial services market, as they believe 2008 will be a tough year for small companies selling into tightening IT budgets.
• Merriman lowered its rating on Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) to Neutral from Buy on valuation, as they believe the stock is pricing in upside from strong website traffic seen in January driven by refinance activity and Fed rate cuts. Citigroup downgraded shares to Hold from Buy on valuation, as they find the risk/reward less compelling at current levels.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan removed SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) from its Top 3 Picks List.
• Goldman downgraded CSK Auto (NYSE: CAO) to Neutral from Buy and removed Google (GOOG) from its Conviction Buy List.
• Baird lowered Comerica (NYSE: CMA) to Neutral from Outperform.

Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP) volatility elevated at 51 as shares near 10-year low.

Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) option implied volatility elevated at 45.

Fifth Third Bancorp (NYSE: FITB) volatility elevated at 40 as shares near 1-year low.

TCF Financial Corporation (NYSE: TCB) volatility elevated at 53 as shares near six-year low.

Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nordstrom (JWN), Monster Worldwide (MNST), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and the U.S. Financials markets were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Piper upgraded shares of Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) to Outperform from Market Perform, citing valuation, and expects the company to have an upbeat tone on Thursday's quarterly report.

• Wachovia upgraded shares of Monster Worldwide (NASDAQ: MNST) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation and strength in its international business. The firm believes North American weakness is largely confined to the e-commerce channel while enterprise growth is ongoing and international business remains strong.

• Banc of America upgraded Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) to Buy from Neutral on valuation.

• Deutsche Bank upgraded JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) to Buy from Hold and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) & Comerica (NYSE: CMA) to Hold from Sell. The firm said JPMorgan's financial conglomerate structure gives it strength to gain share in times of stress. U.S. Bancorp was upgraded based on valuation and okay credit quality. Comerica was upgraded based on valuation and upcoming HQ move to Texas, which could make it a takeover target...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• JP Morgan upgraded Valueclick (NASDAQ: VCLK) to Overweight from Neutral.

• Bear Stearns upgraded BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Outperform from Peer Perform.

• Stifel raised Career Education (NASDAQ: CECO) to Buy from Hold.

• CL King upgraded Gap (NYSE: GPS) to Strong Buy from Neutral.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Jim Cramer had several picks on the Stop Trading! segment on CNBC today. The most noteworthy were his banking picks based on the Barclays (NYSE: BCS) and ABN AMRO (NYSE: ABN) merger and the biotech picks based on the AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) acquisition of MedImmune Inc. (NASDAQ: MEDI).

On Barclays buying ABN AMRO, Cramer said the takeaway could potentially be a higher price if a competing bid looks close, and that can help other bank values. SunTrust Banks Inc. (NYSE: STI), Fifth Third Bancorp. (NASDAQ: FITB), and Comerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA) were all noted as potential deals. If you go back and peer through the valuations of the larger regionals, these all come up as potential names that could be acquired; and noted that Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) is addicted to buyouts.

On MedImmune, Cramer thinks that the overpayment by AstraZeneca means a potential higher valuation adjustment for Cephalon Inc. (NASDAQ: CEPH) and Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG).

Cramer also rushed in a "I Like Coal too," and Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) was his name.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intel (INTC), Caterpillar (CAT), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC), M&T Bank Corp (MTB) and Regions Financial Corp (RF) were some of today's noteworthy initiations:

• Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan based on expectations for margin expansion in 2H07 driven by share gains, stable pricing, and lower costs. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at American Technology as the firm believes the price war is ending sooner than expected and that NOR Flash could be divested soon.

• Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT) was upgraded at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect a re-acceleration in earnings growth and a lower probability of a recession.

• Soleil upgraded shares of Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) to Buy from Hold as the firm believes WFC is an attractive late-cycle play with above-average growth prospects and superior risk management.

• Merrill Lynch upgraded shares of M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB) and Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) to Buy from Neutral, citing valuation. Oppenheimer upgraded M&T Bank to Neutral from Sell based on valuation and revised estimates. Keefe Bruyette raised Regions Financial rating to Market Perform from Underperform.
  

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Susquehanna upgraded shares of NICE Systems Ltd (NASDAQ: NICE) to Positive from Neutral as the firm expects strong execution from the company's robust product set and increased market share following the Verint Systems' (VRNT) acquisition of Witness Systems (WITS).

• Comerica (NYSE: CMA) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital.

• JP Morgan upgraded Interpublic Group of Cos (NYSE: IPG) to Overweight from Neutral.

• ThinkEquity upgraded Trimeris, Inc (NASDAQ: TRMS) to Source of Funds from Sell.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The initiation of the Regional Banks sector was today's most notable move:

• Stifel initiated Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) with a Buy rating and $41 target as they believe the company is best in class given its strong capital position, effective risk management and better than average EPS growth rates.
• Stifel initiated with a Hold rating: Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) and Fifth Third (NASDAQ: FITB).
• Stifel transferred coverage of the following names with Hold ratings: BB&T Corp (NYSE: BBT), Comerica IncCMA), SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI), US Bancorp (NYSE: USB). Note USB was transferred and downgraded to Hold from Buy.
• Stifel initiated Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) with a Sell rating and $33 target as they believe the AmSouth merger is likely to prevent a near-term catalyst, and transferred coverage of National City (NYSE: NCC) with a Sell rating and $33 target, downgraded from Hold, as they believe consensus estimates need to come down to reflect several challenging trends.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• JMP Securities started TiVO Inc (NASDAQ: TIVO) with a Market Outperform rating, expecting the company to gain a larger piece of the DVR market in the late spring/early summer.

• Wedbush initiated Lions Gate Entertainment Corp (NYSE: LGF) with a Buy rating and $13 target.

• BMO Capital started Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY), Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) and Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) with Market Perform ratings and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Merck & Co (MRK) and Schering Plough (NYSE: SGP) with Outperform ratings.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).