MOST NOTEWORTHY: Jefferies Group, Quality Systems and Techwell were today's noteworthy initiations:
Friedman Billings initiated Jefferies Group (NYSE: JEF) with a Market Perform citing the difficult underwriting environment and challenging credit market.
JMP Securities initiated Quality Systems (NASDAQ: QSII) with an Outperform rating and $35 target. The firm expects the company's practice management and electronic medical record solutions to benefit from growth opportunities within the ambulatory market.
Techwell (NASDAQ: TWLL) was assumed with an Overweight rating and $14 target at Thomas Weisel, as they expect TWLL to have continued stable revenue growth given its market leadership and increased global security demand.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Bernstein initiated NetSuite (NYSE: N) with a Market Perform rating and $23 target.
Keefe Bruyette started Comerica (NYSE: CMA) with a Market Perform rating and $37 target.
It has been rumored for the past couple of months or so that J. P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) has been pondering the acquisition of downtrodden Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) and may have had some preliminary discussions. I have been thinking that Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) might have more than a passing interest too.
I have had business dealings with all three financial companies, including stock ownership, loans, and multiple bank accounts. We have owned JPM stock in the past, but do not currently. We sold most of our WaMu stock last year but still own it in one account. We have never owned Wells, but of the three we would like to get into this one the most, at the right price, of course. I have written extensively about all three companies, so it is with more than a passing interest that I was thinking about M&A issues.
Chase and Wells both could make use of WaMu and gain financially but in different ways. Chase has a much bigger need to establish a presence on the West Coast. It has been expanding over time but its branch system is still weak compared to Wells and the other major banks. With its extensive branch system on the West Coast, WaMu would solve that problem fast.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Certain banks, VASCO Data Security and Bankrate were today's noteworthy downgrades:
UBS downgraded shares of Discover (NYSE: DFS) and Capital One (NYSE: COF) to Sell from Neutral and American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Sell from Buy, as they believe a U.S.-led recession will lead to increased credit losses.
Jefferies downgraded shares of VASCO Data Security (NASDAQ: VDSI) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's exposure to the financial services market, as they believe 2008 will be a tough year for small companies selling into tightening IT budgets.
Merriman lowered its rating on Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) to Neutral from Buy on valuation, as they believe the stock is pricing in upside from strong website traffic seen in January driven by refinance activity and Fed rate cuts. Citigroup downgraded shares to Hold from Buy on valuation, as they find the risk/reward less compelling at current levels.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
JP Morgan removed SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) from its Top 3 Picks List.
Goldman downgraded CSK Auto (NYSE: CAO) to Neutral from Buy and removed Google (GOOG) from its Conviction Buy List.
Baird lowered Comerica (NYSE: CMA) to Neutral from Outperform.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nordstrom (JWN), Monster Worldwide (MNST), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and the U.S. Financials markets were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Piper upgraded shares of Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) to Outperform from Market Perform, citing valuation, and expects the company to have an upbeat tone on Thursday's quarterly report.
Wachovia upgraded shares of Monster Worldwide (NASDAQ: MNST) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation and strength in its international business. The firm believes North American weakness is largely confined to the e-commerce channel while enterprise growth is ongoing and international business remains strong.
Banc of America upgraded Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) to Buy from Neutral on valuation.
Deutsche Bank upgraded JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) to Buy from Hold and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) & Comerica (NYSE: CMA) to Hold from Sell. The firm said JPMorgan's financial conglomerate structure gives it strength to gain share in times of stress. U.S. Bancorp was upgraded based on valuation and okay credit quality. Comerica was upgraded based on valuation and upcoming HQ move to Texas, which could make it a takeover target...
OTHER UPGRADES:
JP Morgan upgraded Valueclick (NASDAQ: VCLK) to Overweight from Neutral.
Bear Stearns upgraded BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Outperform from Peer Perform.
Jim Cramer had several picks on the Stop Trading! segment on CNBC today. The most noteworthy were his banking picks based on the Barclays (NYSE: BCS) and ABN AMRO (NYSE: ABN) merger and the biotech picks based on the AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) acquisition of MedImmune Inc. (NASDAQ: MEDI).
On Barclays buying ABN AMRO, Cramer said the takeaway could potentially be a higher price if a competing bid looks close, and that can help other bank values. SunTrust Banks Inc. (NYSE: STI), Fifth Third Bancorp. (NASDAQ: FITB), and Comerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA) were all noted as potential deals. If you go back and peer through the valuations of the larger regionals, these all come up as potential names that could be acquired; and noted that Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) is addicted to buyouts.
On MedImmune, Cramer thinks that the overpayment by AstraZeneca means a potential higher valuation adjustment for Cephalon Inc. (NASDAQ: CEPH) and Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG).
Cramer also rushed in a "I Like Coal too," and Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) was his name.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intel (INTC), Caterpillar (CAT), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC), M&T Bank Corp (MTB) and Regions Financial Corp (RF) were some of today's noteworthy initiations:
Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan based on expectations for margin expansion in 2H07 driven by share gains, stable pricing, and lower costs. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at American Technology as the firm believes the price war is ending sooner than expected and that NOR Flash could be divested soon.
Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT) was upgraded at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect a re-acceleration in earnings growth and a lower probability of a recession.
Soleil upgraded shares of Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) to Buy from Hold as the firm believes WFC is an attractive late-cycle play with above-average growth prospects and superior risk management.
Merrill Lynch upgraded shares of M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB) and Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) to Buy from Neutral, citing valuation. Oppenheimer upgraded M&T Bank to Neutral from Sell based on valuation and revised estimates. Keefe Bruyette raised Regions Financial rating to Market Perform from Underperform.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Susquehanna upgraded shares of NICE Systems Ltd (NASDAQ: NICE) to Positive from Neutral as the firm expects strong execution from the company's robust product set and increased market share following the Verint Systems' (VRNT) acquisition of Witness Systems (WITS).
Comerica (NYSE: CMA) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The initiation of the Regional Banks sector was today's most notable move:
Stifel initiated Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) with a Buy rating and $41 target as they believe the company is best in class given its strong capital position, effective risk management and better than average EPS growth rates.
Stifel initiated Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) with a Sell rating and $33 target as they believe the AmSouth merger is likely to prevent a near-term catalyst, and transferred coverage of National City (NYSE: NCC) with a Sell rating and $33 target, downgraded from Hold, as they believe consensus estimates need to come down to reflect several challenging trends.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
JMP Securities started TiVO Inc (NASDAQ: TIVO) with a Market Outperform rating, expecting the company to gain a larger piece of the DVR market in the late spring/early summer.
I briefly noted that Cramer said Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) may be telegraphing that they are going to buy someone. He said point blank, "Please don't do it! Your stock finally looks good." He noted that they could be looking at Comerica Inc. (NYSE:CMA) and National City Corp. (NYSE:NCC). These are not "completely undoable" but the current regulations could be a real issue. This was summarized here, and you can visit our full article here.
The company is very close to its nationally imposed 10% deposit CAP, where the federal reserve does not allow any single bank to hold more than 10% of banking deposits on a nationwide basis. The Charlotte Business Journal said the bank is working with the North Carolina Bankers Association to get the ceiling lifted. Since that association is probably all yes-men for Bank of America and for Wachovia Corp. (NYSE:WB), where both banking behemoths are located, this support is not a truly monumental development and is far different than if it was with support of other state or regional banking associations. Both of these names are on a WATCH LIST for the BAIT SHOP because of their valuations being within the valuation guidelines that would make them potentially attractive to a buyer, but considering the size of the companies you could just as easily see them out trying to buy smaller banks on their own.
Neither bank -- Comerica nor National City -- has had much price movement since Cramer noted this, so the street is probably guessing that these aren't in-play. NCC closed up 0.1% at $35.67 and CMA closed up 0.4% at $58.27.
Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
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MOST NOTEWORTHY: Jefferies Group, Quality Systems and Techwell were today's noteworthy initiations:
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